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In the popular perception, technology jobs are either shipped off to India (where labor is cheap), or kept here in the U.S. (which helps maintain American jobs). Its a staunchly Us vs. Them outlook.
But the reality isnt that simple. As American tech companies set up shop in India, and as India IT firms open American offices staffed by Americans the line between whats American and whats Indian is starting to blur. Mike Ford-Taggart, a Morningstar analyst who covers the IT sector, sums it up: I think five years from now were not going to talking about Indian IT services companies, were going to be talking about global IT services companies.
No matter what country an IT services firm is originally from, he says, If theyre not global firms, theyre not going to be around.
IBM very much an American company employs 53,000 staffers in India. (The company has 127,000 U.S.-based workers.) And a recent IBM project for Texas-based CenterPoint Energy Project included six software developers based in India combined with dozens of staffers from across the U.S.
Accenture presents a similar international picture. We think of them as an American firm, but its not, its based in Bermuda, Ford-Taggart says. The CFO is out of Frankfurt, and the marketing guy is in San Francisco. Theres no place where these guys sit together and share ideas.
As American firms hire more Indian workers, Indian companies are hiring more Americans. Indian IT giant Wipro (which is listed on the New York Stock Exchange), in August announced it would acquire Infocrossing, a U.S. infrastructure management firm with 900 employees. (The deal is scheduled to close in Q4.)
More and more, Infosys and Wipro are moving people to on-site [in the U.S.], Ford-Taggart says. Because they have H-1B visa problems, theyre hiring Americans. They send them to Bangalore for six months to be trained, then theyll send them back to the U.S.
Wipro just announced plans to open a development center in Atlanta, with three more in the works. The new hires will be Americans. Theyre going to hire people who have associates degrees, or people out of the military, Ford-Taggart says. In other words, lower cost U.S. workers. And as they go along, theyll separate the wheat from the chaff, and pay for the wheat to go get the bachelors degree and not ship them to India.
It is, to be sure, an idea that sounds strange to American ears: the Indian IT firm not as job stealer, but as job provider.
However, while this is not yet a common practice, its becoming common. They started doing this about two years ago. Now theyre really starting to ramp it up, he says. In the future, as IT outfits from each region take root in their competitors area, the tech industry can expect far more of this.
Next page: Globalize or Bust
Globalize or Bust
Not only will IT services be globalized to the extent that a firms home base becomes irrelevant, but only those services firms that are truly global will survive. The bottom line appears to be: adopt a fully international stance, or fade away.
Thats my concern with Bearing Point right now, Ford-Taggart says. Theyre not making any effort, because they cant, to invest in their global delivery network. They have very little offshoring.
Yet those with a fully international delivery system will continue to thrive. When I look around 10 years from now, I see Tata, Infosys, Wipro, EDS, IBM, Accenture. Thats probably it, maybe CapGemini. In Ford-Taggarts view, the rest of the players will either be taken private, be acquired, or perhaps a seventh firm will emerge from an aggregation of current companies.
As the mega-size IT shops consolidate their hold, the smaller companies that do BPO (business process outsourcing, such as health or insurance claims), will proliferate faster than piles of papers on a claim adjusters desk. Like the bigger firms, these BPO firms will cater to a global market. Those kinds of companies, it boggles the mind how many of them there are already: Filipino, Brazilian anywhere, Ford-Taggart says.
In the Drivers Seat
Despite the fact that the future of IT will be less about America vs. India than about global firms competing globally, one fact remains clear: at present, its the Indian companies that are driving change. Its the large pool of well-educated Indian developers who are the emergent force, and its Indian firms that influence even contracts they dont win by providing a lower cost alternative.
At this point, offshoring is in its infancy, despite all the concern and headlines it generates. Estimates of the percentage of work sent offshore range from 4 to 8 percent still a modest slice of the global pie. Based on rough calculations, perhaps some 30 percent of this total goes to India.
Yet its likely that these numbers will increase substantially. One factor suggesting deep growth for Indian IT firms is their pricing power with existing clients. Remarkably, theyve been able to gain pay increases even on existing contracts.
For over a year this type of practice has been going on, explains Ford Taggart. Infosys and Wipro will go back to their client and say, Hey look, big multinational company that we do business for, [Indian] wages are increasing 15% a year, foreign currency fell 7% in the second quarter. We need to raise the price of that contract you agreed to.
Now a contracts a contract, [but] these clients, on average, are letting prices be raised by 3 percent on a signed contract.
The reason? Partially because Indian companies, due to their surplus of cheap labor, are themselves generous with what they provide. By Ford-Taggarts account, the Indian firms will often throw in some extra development work completely free of charge.
As Wipros head of enterprise solutions told him, Well be working on a project and some little side project will come up, and well say So what, Ill have some junior guy, whos just going to be sitting there anyway, jump on it and get it done in a couple of days. The clients will respond as if theyve just been given a major, surprise gift. Its because they're so used to being treated bad by the legacy players," Ford-Taggart explains. With this kind of customer service, its not surprising that clients are willing to grant Indian firms some cost leeway.
What this suggests is that the room for growth in Indian market share is enormous. If you believe that outsourcing is going to become bigger, that the offshoring part of that is going to become bigger, [then Indian IT companies] are going to be growing at these tremendous, tremendous rates.