As IT pros head into 2008, they may have a little less confidence in their prospects and the economy at large — but it’s not time to panic, yet.
Consider, for example, the results of staffing firm Spherion’s most recent monthly Employee Confidence Index. The Index showed that confidence among all workers — IT and non-IT — dropped to its lowest level this year, decreasing 3.5 points to 52.9 in November. The Index measures workers’ confidence in their personal employment situation and optimism in the macroeconomic environment.
While slightly more workers in November believed they’d keep their jobs over the next 12 months than thought so in October, fewer workers:
And IT employees seem to feel these concerns more than most when you consider the results on a quarterly basis, says Spherion regional vice president Sean Ebner. From Q2 to Q3, the Employee Confidence Index for IT fell while the Index for all jobs increased modestly, he says.
“The IT industry has been pretty resilient to most economic downturns because of global expansions, but people are starting to feel that with the softening of the economy, that that may have an immediate impact in the IT area,” says Ebner.
While Ebner says he’s not seeing that himself, IT professionals may be comparing today’s conditions to the last time the economy went through a recession, and mentally and financially preparing themselves for the possibility of down times ahead.
“When the economy went through a recession last time, it hit IT fast and it hit IT hard,” he says. “So people are a little bit skittish about the coming softening in the markets.”
Fears may be fueled by the fact that in the credit and mortgage services industry, for example, where IT is heavily used, there already have been cost restructurings that have led to workforce reduction in many IT departments.
“And the tendency is to cut farther than you think you need to go, because you don’t want to have to do it twice,” he says.
Overall picture optimistic
Meanwhile, IT staffing provider Robert Half Technology earlier this month released its latest IT Hiring Index, based on interviews with more than 1,400 CIOs from U.S. companies with 100 or more employees. The IT Hiring Index result is down two points from the previous quarter: Thirteen percent of CIOs plan to add IT staff and 3 percent anticipate personnel reductions in the first quarter of 2008. The net 10 percent hiring increase compares with a net 12 percent increase projected last quarter, according to the firm.
But even if CIO hiring plans are a bit down, that doesn’t mean it’s time to count IT out, the firm cautions.
“This isn’t enough to fully indicate a trend,” says Robert Half Technology Executive Director Katherine Spencer Lee. “The IT Hiring Index results over the past year were as strong as any we’ve seen in five years or more, and the current results might be a dip, but, overall, the outlook for the industry is positive. CIOs appear optimistic about sustainable hiring increases in the industry as there is still a shortage of highly skilled candidates in a lot of specialties. As the unemployment rate in the United States remains low, and the baby boomer generation nears retirement, companies are struggling to find skilled workers to fill existing and newly created roles.”