No, it's not because of Apple hype, fanboy delusion, media gullibility, dirty tricks or anything else. Apple's multi-touch user interfaces are appealing to use for reasons most users, reviewers, bloggers and journalists don't fully understand.
Apple does understand. The company knows how, why, when and where to combine multi-touch, physics and gestures and an enormous repertoire of user interface design elements into something simple and exhilarating to use. They know this because they've been working on the problem full-time for seven years, guided by some very clear design sensibilities.
Any "iPad Killer" will have to at least approximate the interface sophistication of the iPad itself. So far, nobody has come even close. Quite the contrary. Competitors thus far have demonstrated a conspicuous lack of emphasis on user interface design. And that's why they fail.
A year ago, a lot of people thought a Fusion Garage tablet called the CrunchPad, now called the JooJoo, would take on the iPad with its larger screen, open and "cloud-based" approach, and low price. After a year and a half of development, the company finally shipped it. The device was panned by critics. It was an incredible market flop.
But that doesn't count unless you can actually build a real product and ship it for a price people are willing to pay. I could build a mockup of a nuclear-powered jetpack with a built-in cup-holder. But my CGI wouldn't end the automobile era.
Some thought a project from HP called the Slate might "kill" the iPad, but that was another ill-fated attempt. Ultimately, the HP Slate was a Windows 7 PC with only 1 GB of RAM. Gimme a break. Worse, the tablet had multi-touch, but not physics or gestures. That's like making a blockbuster movie, but without sound. No wonder they killed it.
The latest "iPad Killer" is another project that doesn't exist. The Wall Street Journal this week interviewed Verizon Wireless Chief Executive Lowell McAdam, who said Verizon Wireless and Google are "working on tablets together." What does that mean?
Does that mean Verizon and Google have secretly formed a separate interface design company, and used their deep pockets to raid interface labs at universities to find the innovators in multi-touch design? Well, no. It probably means some suits had a meeting and decided to pursue some hasty product development based on the belief that duplicating the iPad experience looks easy enough.
(Google is also working with several hardware manufacturers to build Android-based tablets.)
A universe of Chinese shanzai knock-offs, pen-based Windows-powered Tablet PC devices, no-name hardware-centric wanna-bes -- none of these are going to succeed until someone steps up and builds a sophisticated touch user interface with multi-touch, physics and gestures that thrills the mainstream public.
All the failures, and all the false hopes for those failures, are based on the flawed assumption that multi-touch user interface design isn't all that hard or important. It's based on the flawed assumption that specs -- USB ports, camera and multitasking, for example -- are more important than user interface design.
These panicked, cobbled together projects aren't going to compete. If we're serious about saving the world from the iPad, we've got to get the right people involved. Unfortunately, the interface innovators aren't working on an iPad competitor, and the iPad competitors aren't employing interface innovators, for the most part.
If history is a reliable guide, HP, Google, Verizon, HTC, RIM, ASUS and the rest are not going to build a more sophisticated touch interface than Apple.
Palm, which is now owned by HP, theoretically has a chance. The Palm Pre has a lot of very sophisticated interface design elements built in. It offers real multi-touch, physics and gestures. Transferred to a tablet with the right specs, I believe the Palm group now at HP has a shot.
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