About a year ago I attended an Interop IT trade show in New York City, and I was struck by the difference between the main show upstairs and the Outsource World show downstairs.
Upstairs was the classic tech trade show in all its gaudy glory: big flashy booths by brand name vendors, noisy constant-loop videos, middle-aged guys singing Karaoke, promotional giveaways, and copious booth babes (thats not me being sexist, its an industry term; and no, Im not sure what young women in hot pants have to do with routers and enterprise security).
Downstairs was Outsource World, and I almost missed it. The hall was almost completely quiet, excerpt for casual conversation. The booths were sober and spare, little video, no Karaoke. The giveaways were mostly company brochures. The sixty or so booths were IT outsourcers from everywhere: many from India, of course, but also Israel, Eastern Europe, South Africa, Ireland, Malaysia, Canada, Chile. Their pitch, though delivered modestly, was compelling: if you want to save money, let us know. Were eager to please and we work cheap.
The difference between upstairs and downstairs left me feeling doubtful about the vendors upstairs. The price of technology tends to fall over time. Both hardware and software get ever cheaper. Are the expensively marketed vendors upstairs equipped to compete, long term, with the bargain-basement folks downstairs? When the booth babes have gone home, will a higher priced bid from New Jersey get chosen over a cheaper one from Bangalore?
I left the Interop conference in stronger agreement with a widely held opinion, that offshoring poses a huge challenge to domestic IT vendors, especially in software. I wish that werent true I have a sentimental fondness for the US vendors (and I want my neighbors and colleagues to have jobs). But Im afraid it is.
So I was happy to see the new IT Trends Survey from the Society for Information Management (SIM) that suggests depending on how you read it that offshoring is merely a minor factor in IT.
Jerry Luftman, the SIM VP of academic affairs and a professor at Stevens Institute of Technology, says the extent of offshoring is greatly exaggerated. Various parties have stoked fears of offshoring for their own purposes.
Its basically politicians run their campaigns on some of those fears. Certainly news people have grabbed on to that, he tells me. And unfortunately, parents hear that. K-12 advisors know that, and theyre veering their kids toward other majors.
Its gotten better in the last year or so, but a lot of schools have closed down.
He points to the following chart from the SIM 2008 IT Trends Survey:
As noted in the chart above, the budget allocated to internal staff (33.7%) and outsourced domestic staff (6.2%) far outweighs the allocation for offshoring (5.6%). The domestic budget looks like a full-grown tree next to offshorings little sapling.
Yet this chart from the SIM 2008 survey seems to paint a different picture:
Even professor Luftman concedes the projected offshoring increase is noticeable.
Clearly, the [offshoring] projection for next year is taking a larger bump than one might have expected, he says. Larger than what has appeared in previous years.
Yes, I note, the projected jump in 2009 certainly shows a trend toward greater offshoring.
Its not a trend, its a one year projection, you cant call it a trend yet, he says. He points out that in the last few years offshoring has gone down.
But, I respond, ever pessimistic, if you look at the larger trend line from '05 to '09, fluctuations aside, the trend is clearly toward more overseas activity.
Not as professor Luftman sees it. But its still relatively not a large number, he says.