Meanwhile, IDC believes that more than a 1.2 million thin clients will ship in 2010, an increase of 20 percent over 2009. Sounds great if you have a short memory. Anyone paying attention to this market sector has heard this before. IDC made many similar bold predictions in the past.
For instance, in 2003 IDC predicted that the market would expand to 3.4 million units by 2007. Obviously, growth lags behind earlier predictions.
This isn't meant to beat up on IDC. Sure, they were overly optimistic, but so was everyone else. Other analysts and such vendors as Oracle, Sun and Microsoft all made similar proclamations.
What's different this time? Several things. First, the in-the-office-all-day-long workforce is becoming a thing of the past. Next, broadband penetration is up, even if it still lags behind were it should be in the U.S. Smart phone adoption is also up, meaning more and more end users are getting comfortable accessing the Internet on devices other than PCs.
Meanwhile, organizations are beginning to realize that virtual desktops may be a heck of a lot easier to secure, manage and maintain than full-blown ones.
Finally, the biggest factor benefiting thin clients is the convergence of virtualized infrastructures with cloud computing. This technology perfect storm means thin client adoption is a "when," not "if" scenario. As the market evolves, will today's thin-client leaders, such as Wyse, NComputing and Pano Logic, gain the same sort of brand recognition that Microsoft, Apple and HP do today?
It's too early to tell, but what we do know is that the following five vendors are well positioned to take advantage of this burgeoning market.
Why they're a thin client leader today: HP's acquisition of Neoware in 2007 vaulted them to the top of the thin client market. Gaining market share via acquisition doesn't necessarily make you a "leader," if the definition of "leader" you're using is synonymous with "visionary." In this case, however, HP both gained market muscle and displayed insight.
With many of its hardware platforms threatened by the looming post-PC era, HP has taken steps to help it avoid repeating the mistakes IBM made in the 1980s and 90s.
Why they could be on top in years to come: Versus the other competitors in this market, HP's main advantage is its sales channels. Others, such as Wyse, may have been playing the thin client game for longer, but they'll have a tough time reaching the same number of customers. While other competitors are hyping up zero clients, HP is focusing on mobile thin clients, which we see as a smart move. The zero client concept certainly has its appeal, but not quite the raw appeal of mobile.
HPs mobile thin clients are basically laptops preloaded to work with virtualized environments. Not terribly revolutionary, but HP seems to be positioning itself to push the virtual desktop to other mobile devices as the market matures.
While the zero client message is tailored for enterprise customers, mobile clients appeal to businesses and consumers alike. When it comes to gadgets, innovation is often driven on the consumer side before spilling over into the enterprise, so this is no trivial distinction.
Customers: Dominos Pizza, Seismic Micro-Technology, Noodles & Company, Apache Junction Unified School District and JetBlue.
Why they're a thin client leader today: Wyse was the leading thin client vendor until HP jumped ahead with its purchase of Neoware. Today, Wyse is a close number two, and according to IDC, together HP and Wyse own roughly 70% of the market.
Wyse has an impressive product portfolio, offering everything from standard desktop thin clients to mobile ones. Moreover, Wyses PocketCloud technology, which allows users to manage their virtual desktops from iPhones, iTouches and iPads, is ahead of anything else in the market.
Why they could be on top in years to come: Wyses history in this space sets it aside from others on this list. Wyse has shipped nearly 10 million thin clients, and it has been a pioneer with such innovations as OS and application streaming, zero clients and virtual clients that work with smart phones and tablet PCs.
While it doesnt have the market muscle of HP, Wyse is well positioned to cash in on a variety of thin client adoption models, be it zero, mobile or shared clients.
Customers: Abbott Labs, Aramark, Citi, Hilton Reservations and Sears.
Why they're a thin client leader today: Rather than replacing PCs with thin clients during your next upgrade cycle, why not purchase fewer PCs, tie them to multiple terminals, keyboards and mice, and drive your replacement costs down even further?
Thats NComputings proposition. According to the company, todays PCs have become so powerful that they are pretty much like supercomputers. Yet, 99 percent of all PCs users arent doing any supercomputing. Most of the compute- and memory-intensive things going on in the workplace, like streaming video, probably arent even work-related. As a result, NComputing estimates that 95 percent of each PCs power is wasted.
NComputing has more than 2 million seats deployed and more than 100,000 users in the enterprise market.
Why they could be on top in years to come: NComputing takes a single PC and delivers it to as many as 30 users, with a price per seat as low as $70. While being the low-cost vendor isnt always the best positioning for a technology company, NComputings low cost comes from a distinctly different model from competitors.
No server infrastructure, little maintenance and a small energy-consumption footprint add up to make NComputings solution appealing to verticals such as the government and education sectors. NComputing claims to have already captured about 15% of the US K-12 desktop computing market.
The company recently released its Numo chipset line, which moves virtualization from the desktop and server to mobile and next-generation devices. The $20 Numo system-on-chip is intended for non-PC devices, such as netbooks, TVs, set-top boxes and Android phones.
Customers: Big O Tires, Employee State Insurance Corporation (Indian governments social security system), Government of Punjab Province, Pakistan and Tangipahoa Parish (Louisiana) School District.