Cloud Computing: The Road Ahead

A look at various cloud computing markets by revenue, along with top research firms’ predictions of the trends to watch.
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Not too long ago, one of the leading computer companies filed an application to trademark the term ‘cloud computing’, which was denied by the US Patent and Trademark Office. That was in August 2008 when cloud computing was in its infancy. Yet that act was a kind of starting line: since then, cloud computing has received a lot of attention.

The economic downturn most likely provided an impetus to jumpstart cloud computing. The potential is huge. Cloud computing could transform the IT industry from an asset-centric approach to a services-centric approach. It could change IT from on-premise technology to on-demand services.

The last two years saw tremendous innovation and progress, especially in the ‘Infrastructure-as-a-Service’ realm. Because of the low utilization of servers and the introduction of virtualization layer and related software, server virtualization took off. What started off as a concept concerning the virtualization of servers has extended to include network virtualization, desktop virtualization and application virtualization.

Amazon, a retail giant, has quietly become a big player in the IT industry through innovation. The growth of this industry has not been without some setbacks. There has been the publicized outage of Amazon EC2 and the Sony Playstation network data breach.

More recently, there are allegations about encryption and data security practices followed by an online storage company. Would the IT industry now adopt cloud computing rather cautiously?

Cloud Computing Market Size

Cloud Type

Year 2011

$ B

Year 2020

$ B

Public Cloud

25.5

159.3

Virtual Private Cloud

7.5

66.4

Private Cloud

7.8

15.9

Total

40.7

241

Forrester:  The recent Forrester report "Sizing the Cloud" provides a good idea of the various verticals and horizontals in the cautious, complex and dynamic cloud computing market for the next 10 years. The report says that the cloud computing market will leap from $40.7 billion this year to more than $241 billion in 2020 with a year-to-year growth of over 20%.  It also discusses the market sizes for the three deployment models of cloud computing — the public cloud, the virtual private cloud, and the private cloud.

According to the report, the present $2.9 billion size of Infrastructure-as-a-Service will increase to $5.9 billion in 2014 and then taper off to $4.8 billion. This tapering will happen between 2014 and 2020 because of commoditization, increased automation & efficiencies and reduced margins to compete effectively.

The report estimates explosive growth in Software-as-a-Service  with its market size estimated to be over 80% of the global public cloud market. It’s market size just in the global public cloud space is estimated to grow to $92.75 billion by 2016  and  to $132.57 billion by 2020.

Gartner: By 2014, Gartner predicts worldwide cloud services revenue (both public and private) will reach more than $148 billion. With its latest survey, Gartner received responses from 2,014 CIOs representing more than $160 billion in CIO IT spending and covering 38 industries across 50 countries. The survey found that only 3% of CIOs today have more than half of their infrastructure and applications operating in the cloud. But that number is expected to grow to 46% by 2015, making cloud transformation the hallmark of many CIOs at their current companies.

"By the end of 2011, the battle for leadership in PaaS and the key PaaS segments will engulf the software industry," said Yefim Natis, vice president and distinguished analyst at Gartner. "Early consolidation of specialized PaaS offerings into PaaS suites will also be evident.

IDC: According to IDC, spending on IT cloud services would grow fourfold, reaching $4.6 billion by 2014. By 2012, nearly 85% of net-new software firms coming to market will be built around SaaS service composition and delivery; by 2014, about 65% of new products from established ISVs will be delivered as SaaS services. SaaS-derived revenue will account for nearly 26% of net new growth in the software market in 2014

Ovum: The next big growth area in cloud computing will be the rise of platform-as-a-service (PaaS) technology, which will step out from the shadow of infrastructure-as-a-service (IaaS). IaaS has become an important cloud success story in the past three years, spearheaded by Amazon and the uptake of virtualization technology, which has given rise to an army of Amazon clones.

However, this year PaaS will make its mark, not just because of the efforts by Microsoft, Google and Salesforce.com but also because of the launch of new offerings. PaaS services were launched by VMware and Red Hat in late 2010 and IBM is expected to enter the fray in 2011. This will give rise to a strong PaaS ecosystem to rival IaaS.

PaaS pioneers Google, Microsoft and Salesfore.com adopted the PaaS as fabric approach. The next wave of PaaS offerings could be with a compute instance-based approach rather than a compute fabric one.

451 Market Monitor: The market for software that enables cloud computing will grow from $4.5 billion in 2010 to more than $11.6 billion by 2014, according to a new report from 451 Group, a leading independent IT research and analyst organization.

Grail Research: The report ‘Navigating the Cloud’ says that there is little doubt that cloud computing is here to stay. Initial apprehensions about security, vendor lock-in, and data privacy are subsiding and new debates, such as public versus private/hybrid deployment, are taking center stage. The question is no longer “What is the cloud?” but “How can I assess cloud opportunities for my business to gain competitive advantage?”

MarketsandMarkets: The global computing market is expected to grow from 37.8 billion in 2010 to 121.1 billion in 2015 at a CAGR of 26.2% from 2010 to 2015. SaaS is the largest contributor in the cloud computing services market, accounting for 73% of the market's revenues in 2010.

Federal government: Office of Management and Budget (OMB) predicts that of the $80 billion federal IT spend, $20 billion can potentially move to the cloud.

Amazon: UBS analysts estimate a revenue figure of $500 million in 2010, and predicts this to rise to $750 million in 2011 and a massive $2.5 billion in 2014. Citigroup’s prediction for 2010 revenue was $650 million.

Rackspace: The 451 Group conservatively estimates that revenue from Rackspace’s cloud services was $100 million in 2010.

 


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Tags: cloud computing, virtualization, private cloud, public cloud, hybrid cloud


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