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Linux desktop users have a lot of options: Everything from preconfigured systems running specialized implementation of Linux distributions to popular stand alone distros like PCLinuxOS and Fedora. Which of these options will finally dethrone Ubuntu once and for all? Would we be shocked to hear that it will not be a distribution of Linux in the literal sense?
Success will be had by providing a standardized platform like we have seen with gOS on Everex PCs sold at Wal-Mart. gOS is using Google's branding to make the OS seem like something that users have been wanting for a very long time to magically appear and compete against Microsoft Windows.
At the end of the day, Zonbu wins over gOS, as their products provide restricted codecs out of the box and it requires ZERO tweaking to get anything working. In short, I believe it will be Zonbu-like products that will overthrow Ubuntu as we know it today.
Also, Linux products that provide Flash and Java out of the box. Violating the GPL, you say? Maybe, but I have seen a few companies doing this successfully and ensuring some level of compliance by making their own source code available. They key to success is actually simple. A low price point, plenty of recognizable software, and the ability to use their PCs as users see fit.