But just as the Blitzkrieg depended on speed and failed in Russia because it got bogged down, Googles attack on Microsoft has become equally bogged down. Microsofts Office 365 hosted software in the cloud is taking back the initiative. If Microsoft can maintain the pressure, Google is unlikely to recover at least in the desktop application space.
Lets explore that and some of the other battles this week.
The Mozilla Foundation with Firefox lined up against IE, the Linux movement and Apple separately went after Windows, and Google and Sun (Open Office and Star Office) went after Microsoft Office all with surprising initial success.
Microsoft had felt secure behind their virtual Maginot-Line of compatibility, which had the firm believing it was unassailable. Hence it was unable to move quickly to address what was a massive attack it didnt anticipate. In every area it bled market share but one Office, which avoided the twin catastrophes that were Windows Vista and IE6, and actually held on the best.
The most pitiful was the attack by Sun with Open Office and Star Office. This closest military metaphor was Custers Last Stand, where an arrogant small force tried to fight a vastly superior number on terrain they clearly didnt understand. It was quite literally a massacre and its no wonder that Oracle is pretty much pulling the plug on Suns approach. The unsuccessful effort is causing a rather impressive internal conflict that will likely do more to eliminate this threat to Microsoft Office than anything Microsoft itself could do.
The most successful were Firefox and Apple, and of the two, Apple was clearly the best funded and continues as the only sustaining success in terms of strong market share gains. Firefox won initially, largely because the defense of compatibility doesnt work at all in a standards-based environment. It was slowed down because it was massively under-funded against the awakened giant that Microsoft became. Firefox was more like an internal rebellion because this was Mozillas home turf as much as it was Microsofts.
Apples success reminds me of the US Civil war but in an alternative universe where the South did rise again. Well-funded, focused, and with a beautifully executed strategy, of the initial Microsoft challengers, only Apple stands out as an unmitigated success. But, fortunately for Microsoft Office, they really never targeted that product.
Linux was more like a political fight where the Microsoft eventually embraced key concepts (Open Source/Interoperability) and made them their own. The Linux folks seemed to have increasing trouble figuring out what they truly stood for outside of just being against Microsoft.
In the end none of these attacks was coordinated across more than one platform. Against a solidly entrenched, better funded, and increasingly focused foe, progress (with Apple being the exception) was largely stalled.
On paper they had every base covered but they seemed to forget they were fighting on Microsofts home turf and they gave Microsoft the critical time the company needed to respond.
All Microsoft needs is an offering that is good enough and by all initial reports Office 365 is good enough. This fight is likely over if Microsoft can keep up the pressure. The reason is that Google Apps had one sustaining advantage price while the twin disadvantages security and high migration cost were either not realized or successfully offset by the price advantage. Given time and focus, Microsoft will reduce the cost delta with Office 365, while the security-privacy exposure with Googles approach has become far more critical.
As a result, reports indicate that the momentum Google built up is now shifting to Office 365 and back to Microsoft. Given Microsoft still has the home turf advantage it is unlikely Google will be able to shift it back.
However, if the attack drags on for years, is under-funded and poorly coordinated, the result is what we are now seeing with Office 365, with the entrenched vendor shrugging it off and the attacker forced to regroup and reconsider.