Will those people who were burned by Vista feel up to trusting Microsoft when it comes to Windows 7? Remember that whole The WOW is now! advertizing campaign? Remember how quickly that fizzled out once people started having problems?
People who have the money to spend on an upgrade might just keep hold of that cash and wait and see how things turn out with Windows 7. After all, theres no reason to rush adoption.
The fact that over 70 per cent of users still run Windows XP is an excellent indication as to just how entrenched users are. The message that users have been giving Microsoft thus far is that they are happy with XP.
How is Microsoft going convince these people to part with their beloved XP? If the Redmond giant cant encourage an exodus from the aging OS, Windows 7 will end up cannibalize Vista sales, which doesnt really help Microsofts bottom line.
Again, Microsoft needs to get its PR machine working on outlining compelling reasons for people to move from XP to Windows 7 that go beyond eye candy and skin deep UI improvements show us WHY we need Windows 7!
Does Windows 7 offer value for money? Sure, there have been numerous deals available where people can pick up a cheap upgrade in the months running up to the GA date, but this is a tactic to sell something to people before they really know what they are getting.
What will matter for Windows 7 are not the sales figures for the first day, or first week or month for that matter, but sales figures for the first six months, and then the first twelve months.
Itll also be important to keep an eye on how Windows 7 affects OS market share. If we see a good move from XP to 7, thats good for Microsoft. On the other hand, if what we see are people moving from Vista to 7, that will become a very big problem for Microsoft.
Windows 7 launch parties kick off October 22nd. Well see whether Windows 7 will sink or swim in the following weeks and months.
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