InternetNews Predicts Tech Winners of 2009

David Needle has an excellent column on InternetNews.com about what 2009 will bring in the technology world.

The column is part of the site's comprehensive annual week-long look at what's next in technology with predictions that the big stories of 2008 will again be leading the way in 2009.

I'm very curious about how all the social networking players will survive or die or merge. Needle shares my views that we'll be seeing a ton of consolidation, because many of the small social networking players are offering tools that are slowly being added by the big fish (an all-too-common trend with popular tools like this. Thanks a lot, Microsoft). Needle writes:

One thing you can bet will disappear in 2009 are some of the social networking vendors scrambling for a piece of the online pie. Again, looking out to 2012, Gartner expects more than 60 percent of the current social software vendors will exit the market through acquisition or failure.

But I expect several high profile exits as soon as 2009 as established software players adopt many of the key features more niche players are pitching as separate offerings. And many, this author included, are suffering from community overload. You can only join so many networks without the constant add a friend invitations become a serious annoyance.

I'm also interested in the future of instant messaging, which I keep trying to avoid. It was forced on me in the 90s  when I worked at CNET's News.com, but I tried to resist. According to Needle and Gartner, I may have no choice but to re-embrace the IM beast:

The first obvious "victim" will likely be traditional e-mail systems. By 2012, Gartner predicts a whopping 95 percent of enterprise workers will use IM as their primary interface for computer-based, real-time communications, and I would expect that transition to make significant headway in the coming year. Even traditional consumer e-mail is changing to add social features with companies like Yahoo rolling out its "smarter inbox" this month.

Check out Needle's column at InternetNews.com.